The Ultimate Determining Factor
My earliest memories were arguing with the neighborhood kids about who was the best hitter; Cobb, Ruth, Hornsby or Sisler. I’ve always been a Ruth man, and even at that young age I steadfastly staked my claim with hard-hitting ammunition. I didn’t care how many hits, stolen bases or big averages the rest of them had, The Babe was in a class unto his own and a man among boys. In 1920, he hit more home runs than any other American league team. This might be the most preposterous fact in the history of baseball. I didn’t feel nearly as strongly about pitchers though. Sure Walter Johnson (110 shutouts and 10 times leading the league in strikeouts), Christy Mathewson (30 wins four times and 20 wins thirteen times) and Grover Cleveland Alexander (16 shutouts in one year and three consecutive pitching triple crowns) were great, but I could not find much that separated one’s greatness from the other. Ever since those days of my youth, I’ve studied the numbers to make determinations and further my knowledge.
There is no doubt that my early study was hindered by tidbits of interesting trivia. Hall of Famer Ted Lyons ended his career at age 45 after pitching 25 consecutive complete games. Bobo Newsom, changed teams 14 times in the era before free agency, and in his long career, gave up homeruns to Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle. Lefty O’Doul started out as a pitcher, didn’t take up hitting until his 30’s, and in a four-year period lead the league in hitting twice. Not only was Ted Williams the last man to hit .400, but he was also the last to score and knock in 150 runs in the same season (1949). I would get into debates about the most amazing records such as Steve Carlton winning 46% of his team’s games in 1972, or Babe Ruth’s 618 Complete Bases (Total bases + walks +stolen bases – unfortunately being hit by a pitched ball, catcher’s interference and defensive indifference could not be included for lack of records) in 1921, or the 1916 New York Giants having winning streaks of 26 (the all time longest) and 17 games and finishing in 4th place. I could go on like memorizing all the stats of all regular players and pitchers for the 1952 season, but I think I’ve made my point.
It wasn’t until the 60’s that I began a serious study into the interrelationships between the numbers in search of a deeper meaning. For a brief while I went all the way back to 19th century to build a foundation and understanding of how the changes in field dimensions and rules progressed to fine tune the balance between offense and defense. Four balls and three strikes, 90 feet between bases, 60 feet, 6 inches between the pitching rubber and home plate and are like the scales of justice. They set forth a perfect equilibrium that tests skills and competitive spirit like no other sport. By the turn of the 20th century the beauty of the game was firmly established. As my study progressed into the 70’s, like-minded people formed The Society of American Baseball Research (SABR) and analysis and understanding of the game leaped forward. I joined SABR and became vice-chair of the Statistical Analysis Committee.
My committee’s focus was initially on cataloging and organizing all the data. National League records date to 1876 and The American League goes back to 1901. This was a gigantic task, and thank goodness for computers because there were more numbers to go through than all the weather or stock exchange data combined. Then we became enamored with finding the ultimate formula for determining offensive and defensive worth. Terms like Total Productive Average, OPS (On base percentage + slugging average), Runs Created, Linear Weights, Average Run Equivalent Method, Quality Average, Standardized Range Factor, Batting average per batted ball in play (BABIP), Isolated Power, Earned Based Average, Pitching Efficiency Rating, Total Power Quotient and Stadium Factors, were developed and promoted. We were called Sabermetricians and more and more often, baseball teams valued our contributions. SABR Members gained employment with major league teams with several even becoming General Managers.
It was when my SABR colleagues began to make their presence known in the major leagues that I took up my current project: how to fix baseball. While there are a few serious scholars that agree with me that the game is sick (not just from steroids), the vast majority of baseball people citing all time high attendance, revenues, and an increasing globalization of the game, at the very least disagree and more commonly, dismiss me as a misguided rube or a terminal flake.
I firmly believe too much of a good thing is not a good thing but a bad thing. The regular season now begins in March and while it has not happen yet, we will see World Series games in November. Snow, ice and baseball just don’t coagulate. Not only is the season too long, so are the games themselves. One of the more redeeming characteristics of baseball is the lack of a clock, yet recently officials have begun using a stopwatch to time batters and pitchers between pitches and innings as a way of reducing the average length of a game to around 2 hours and 45 minutes. Two hours was the average length of a game around 1950. I support the effort to speed up games by reducing the dillydallying of pitchers and hitters. Too much inaction has ruined the game.
But that only addresses part of the problem with baseball. Before World War 2, over 40% of the games were completed by starting pitchers. Now the average number of pitchers per game is over seven. If a starting pitcher goes 7 innings now, it’s considered a superb achievement. The National League leader last year pitched a paltry four complete games. Relief specialist, who sometimes pitch to one batter and rarely go more than an inning, take over in the late innings. Blame a large part of this situation to a religious fervor given to pitch counts. If a guy gets over 100, he ready to be yanked at any time. Over 110 and the only thing keeping him in is his pleading and a manager who’ll give in. 120 is the outer limits. Oh for the good old days. Back in 1963, Hall of Famers Warren Spahn and Juan Marichal went all the way in a 16 inning, 1-0 game. Forty two year old Spahn threw 201 pitches, and twenty five year old Marichal threw 227. It would have been an all time treat to see those warriors that day. Nolan Ryan, another Hall of Famer during an 11-week span in 1974, had pitch counts of 150,172,184, and 235. Obviously high pitch counts did not ruin their arms.
When The American League first started using the designated hitter rule in 1973, I was willing to give it a chance even though it was counter to my principles. Not having the pitcher hit allowed the pitcher to concentrate on pitching, the manager didn’t have to remove him for a pinch hitter, and at first complete games went up. Unfortunately several of the 1980 Oakland Athletic starting pitchers who completed 2/3 or more of their games developed sore arms and ever since then a flood of relief pitching has stalled late inning play. Awarding Saves starting in the 1960’s and then Holds later are evidence of the proliferation of relievers. So now in addition to hitting specialists, we have pitching specialists. The days of all players being able to run, throw, field and hit have passed.
It is with all this in mind that I’ve dedicated the rest of my life to fixing baseball. I am in the process of amassing a compelling conglomeration of facts, statistics, and thoughtful analysis that will show that the direction the game has taken toward specialists, driven by big money, big egos on the part of the owners and players union and a host of accepted falsehoods, is doing sustained damage to baseball. I will show how illogical it is to take out the best, or second best, or third best pitcher on the team and bring in the sixth, or seventh, or eighth best pitcher. I will put to rest the pitch count ruling pitchers game participation and how throwing more pitches is not harmful. I will show how fans want to root for good, old fashioned, complete players and not a host of short-term specialists. I will show how these specialists have slowed down games and prevented fan identification with pitchers by showing how many fans do not watch whole games anymore. It is more than a bad omen when fans do not stay to find out who won the game. And I will bring the magic of the World Series back by outlawing interleague play and night games. My treatise will give clear recommendations on what must be done and how to do the needed repairs with documented support data and a preponderance of common sense.
I am terribly saddened to know baseball has been shoved aside by helmeted and padded elevens full of specialists and noisy cars driven around in circles by non-athletes. It is hard for me to imagine why people would give these reckless, thoughtless endeavors the time of day. I will show the world the greatness of baseball. With every ounce of my remaining strength I will work to return baseball to its former glory as the best sport ever created and America’s game.